Publication Date

Fall 2025

Abstract

The combined vulnerability and importance of mangrove forests have spurred efforts to preserve their remaining natural stage and restore their land area made unsuitable by storms or coastal development. Globally, both private and government organizations have participated in mangrove ecosystem recovery through standard methodology and principles such as replantation and ecosystem rehabilitation. However, research into the costs and outcomes of these programs has ruled that many of them suffer low success rates due to a lack of suitable areas for rehabilitation, citing a poor understanding of the ecosystem typology and lack of long-term measures to avoid eventual degradation. This study aims to answer how knowledge of natural mangrove recruitment and forest expansion could inform the efforts of restoration initiatives, as both are metrics of their success. This study analyzed the patterns of recruit establishment and estimated survival rates along forest fringes while making note of the local environmental variables: forest size, average tree canopy size, fringe position relative to the sea, substrate types, and distance from major anthropogenic presence. Of these, forest size and fringe recruit density were the only variables with a discernable relationship, highlighting the volatility of distinct mangrove forests and indicating that all sites under restoration should be treated as unique individuals. Few universal principles, if any, can be extrapolated to all mangrove ecosystems, corroborating the recommendation for location-specific understanding posited by the restoration evaluations. Finally, this study develops and presents a effective equation for use by restorationists in gauging the anticipated expansion and reproductive success of their target forest, also fostering the expressed need for long-term monitoring.

Disciplines

Life Sciences

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Life Sciences Commons

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