Publication Date
Fall 2024
Abstract
Glaciers are important water resources in Iceland, in part because glacial runoff powers the country’s largest hydropower stations, which produce a large portion of the nation’s electricity. However, glaciers around Iceland are retreated at unprecedented rates due to climate change and are projected to continue to do so over the course of the 21st century. Glacial retreat plays a complex role in the water cycle, most often following a “peak water” curve marked by initial increases in total annual runoff as melt accelerates followed by eventual declines as the glacier continues to shrink. This holds important implications for the hydropower industry, which will experience changes in power production potential aligned with changes in runoff. This study attempts to estimate the timing of peak water for five different hydropower operational areas in Iceland, as well as quantify runoff and power production during these peaks. Additionally, this study examines net changes in runoff and power production by the end of the century. Glacier mass balance and runoff in each operational area are modelled until 2100 using the Open Global Glacier Model (OGGM). Each glacier is simulated under three future SSP scenarios, and resulting trends in ice volume, total annual runoff, monthly runoff, and contributions to total runoff by runoff type are assessed. Lastly, power production potential during peak water and at the end of the century is computed from modelled runoff results for eight of the largest hydropower stations in Iceland. Results indicate universal glacier retreat throughout the country, with resulting runoff patterns resembling the peak water curve. Most operational areas experience peak water between 2040 and 2050, with power production potential peaking around the same time. Changes in glacial runoff will dramatically increase power production potential during peak water, though the net change in production by 2100 is much more variable. Extensive planning and engineering within Iceland’s hydropower industry is required in order to effectively make use of increased runoff levels, as well as to prepare for eventual declines in production by the end of the century.
Disciplines
Life Sciences | Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Recommended Citation
Geldert, Anna, "Estimating “Peak Water” Runoff and Power Production for Hydropower-relevant Icelandic Glaciers Under Future Climate Scenarios" (2024). Iceland: Climate Change and The Arctic. 6.
https://digitalcollections.sit.edu/icc2/6