Publication Date

Fall 2025

Abstract

Portugal’s reliance on Pumped Hydro Storage (PHS) to support grid stability poses increasing risks as the share of renewables in the national energy mix approaches the 2030 goal of 85%, and droughts intensify across the Iberian Peninsula (Silva, 2024). Because simulation tools like EnergyPLAN model only one year at a time, they overlook the cumulative effects of prolonged hydrological stress (Lund, 2024). This research addresses that gap by implementing an iterative multi-year approach in EnergyPLAN, linking yearly simulations to assess how extended drought conditions impact PHS performance. Using a detailed 2024 model of Portugal’s power system and applying dry year inflow conditions from 2017, the analysis found no renewable curtailment or unmet demand, due to EnergyPLAN’s set order of which power plants run first, but it revealed a major shift in the generation mix. A 65% drop in hydropower was offset primarily by thermal generation, with natural gas output more than doubling from 4.2 TWh to 9.0 TWh when imports were held constant. While the system remains balanced, the loss of hydro flexibility significantly increases dependence on fuel-based resources, highlighting a substantial vulnerability to multi-year drought. Enhancing resilience will require diversifying flexibility options, modernizing grid infrastructure, and expanding decentralized systems such as community microgrids.

Disciplines

Life Sciences | Social and Behavioral Sciences

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