Home Institution

University of Washington

Publication Date

Spring 2024

Program Name

Iceland: Climate Change and The Arctic

Abstract

Harbor seals (Phoca vitulina) are known to exhibit a preference for specific environmental and weather conditions when hauling out, particularly during the pupping and molting cycles during summer. Climate change is projected to have a significant impact on the haul-out patterns and site conditions of harbor seals in Iceland, which could further diminish their dwindling population. A comprehensive literature review was conducted to identify and discuss the environmental variables that can affect haul-out probability. Among them, surface wind speed and air temperature are reported to have the biggest influence on harbor seal haul-out numbers between May and August. Climate projections for the year 2100 were made using a statistically downscaled climate model for two scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5) to compare the monthly and regional shifts in these two variables. Results indicate a statistically significant increase in surface wind speed and air temperature under both scenarios with a large regional difference across Iceland. Stronger wind will likely deter haul-outs due to wind chill effects, while warmer temperature, which increases molting rate, will increase haul-out probability. While the findings represent just a fraction of the widespread impact of climate change on harbor seals’ haul-out, they highlight the urgent need for further investigations into other biotic factors to fully grasp the intricate relationship between harbor seals and the ever-changing environment.

Disciplines

Climate | Environmental Indicators and Impact Assessment | Marine Biology | Oceanography | Zoology

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